Methodology & evidence
How the Bitcoin market outlook works
The dashboard brings several kinds of Bitcoin market evidence into one view. The score is a transparent heuristic for organizing that evidence. It is not a probability that Bitcoin will rise, a return forecast, or a trade instruction.
What goes into the outlook
- Technical structure: Bitcoin price, completed daily BTC-USD candles, support and resistance zones, moving averages, RSI and MACD. Spot price comes from CoinGecko and candles from Coinbase Exchange.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows: the latest complete reported session and, when available, the sum of five complete sessions from Farside Investors. Partial sessions are shown separately and excluded from scoring.
- Macro context: published 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields and a broad U.S. dollar index from the Federal Reserve's FRED series. These are dated observations, not live quotes. The broad dollar index is not DXY.
- Derivatives risk context: funding, open interest and liquidation-tagged trades from Deribit for BTC-PERPETUAL. This is one venue, not a market-wide total, and it does not affect the directional score.
How the score is combined
Each available scored factor produces a value from 0 to 100. The combined outlook uses these base weights:
| Factor | Weight |
|---|---|
| Technical | 60% |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | 25% |
| Macro context | 15% |
If ETF or macro data is unavailable, its score is left out and the remaining weights are normalized. We do not insert a guessed value. A combined score of 68 or higher is labeled bullish; 38 or lower is labeled cautious; scores between them are neutral. These labels describe the model's current inputs, not certainty about what happens next.
What support and resistance mean here
The structure model looks for repeated pivot highs and lows in completed daily candles and groups nearby prices into zones. Today's unfinished candle is excluded from the pivot history. A zone with more repeated touches is labeled stronger; a fallback zone from recent highs or lows is labeled developing.
A move beyond a zone can be in progress before a completed daily close confirms it. That distinction is shown on the dashboard so an intraday move is not presented as a confirmed breakout or breakdown.
What “Show Evidence” contains
Each saved market snapshot retains its observation time, source information, raw inputs, calculations and an integrity hash. Open Show Evidence on the dashboard to inspect the record behind the current outlook. The hash identifies the stored record; it is not an independent audit of the source providers.
Missing, partial and stale observations are labeled. Conflicting indicators remain visible. The recent changes log reports material events, such as an outlook state change or a confirmed structure change; when no material event occurred, it says so instead of manufacturing an alert.
Limits to keep in mind
This is market research, not investment advice. A score is a summary of selected indicators, and the indicators can disagree or fail. ETF and macro reports arrive on their own publication schedules. Deribit readings cover only the cited instrument and may be partial. Check the timestamps, source links and unavailable-data labels before drawing a conclusion.